NanoMarkets: Even with Falling Prices, OLED Market to Reach $6.3B
Industry analyst firm NanoMarkets has released of its latest report, OLED Lighting Market Forecast Q2 2012. In the report NanoMarkets presents its outlook on the OLED lighting sector with some notable changes since its last release in 2011. The report notes concerns with the current economic situation in Europe, which is a major center for OLED lighting, as well as changes in manufacturing that will dampen prices in the short term but open the door to wider acceptance of the technology as OLED lighting efficiency, panel size, and light output improvements bring the technology to the mainstream.
NanoMarkets now expects that the total market for OLED lighting luminaires will reach approximately $6.3 billion in 2017.
While NanoMarkets sees the overall prospects for the OLED lighting market as remaining strong, they now expect to see a major decline in OLED prices in the next 2 years as mass production technologies start to be applied to this kind of lighting. This pricing trend is expected to dampen OLED lighting revenues for the next 3 years until OLED lighting efficiency, panel size, and light output have improved to the point where OLED lighting is acceptable in mainstream – and mass market – residential and business lighting markets.
In particular, NanoMarkets believes that OLED lighting has the potential to seriously compete with the standard fluorescent lighting panels widely used in offices through improved energy efficiency, lower costs, and improved aesthetics. And by 2017 NanoMarkets expects that more than 75 percent of revenues for OLED luminaires will come from lighting for commercial and industrial buildings.
In 2012, almost 90 percent of OLED sales for lighting applications will come from niche markets such as luxury lighting, large showroom installations, and sales to lighting designers. But by 2017 that share will have fallen to under 1 percent.
NanoMarkets lowered its penetration forecasts for OLED lighting compared to the forecasts it published in 2011 due to weaker-than-expected economic growth throughout the 8-year forecast period. NanoMarkets is particularly concerned about the impact of Europe’s ongoing monetary woes on the OLED lighting market. The OLED lighting market is very Eurocentric with most of the important suppliers based in Europe and Europe’s importance to advanced lighting technology.
About the report
This report provides 8-year forecasts for OLED lighting in six different applications: purchases by lighting designers; luxury lighting; major installations in showrooms, tradeshows, etc.; residential lighting; commercial/industrial lighting; and automotive lighting. Forecasts are presented in both revenue terms ($ millions) and volume terms (units/square meters sold). In addition, the report contains qualitative forecasts of future opportunities for OLEDs in such areas as personal illumination products, signage, industrial lighting, and novelty products.
The forecasts in this report are based on NanoMarkets’ insider understanding of OLED lighting demand patterns, but are backed up by matching projected demand against the plans of major OLED lighting panel suppliers to build manufacturing capacity. Among the firms discussed in this context are AUO, First-o-Lite, GE, Jusung Engineering, Kaneka, Konica Minolta, LG, Lumiotec, Moser Baer, NEC, Osram, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer/Mitsubishi, Samsung, and Visionox.
A summary, table of contents, and sample download are available at Nanomarkets’ OLED Lighting Market Forecast – Q2 2012 web page.
NanoMarkets tracks and analyzes emerging market opportunities in energy, electronics, and other markets created by developments in advanced materials. The firm is a recognized worldwide leader in industry analysis and forecasts of this kind.