DOE Forecast: LEDs 74% of Lighting Sold by 2030

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has published an update of its report forecasting the energy savings potential of LED white-light sources. Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications compares the annual lighting energy consumption in the US with and without the further market penetration of LED lighting. The energy savings potential is represented by the difference in energy consumption between the two scenarios.

The forecast indicates that LED lighting in general illumination applications has the potential to reduce US lighting energy consumption by nearly one-half. Among the other highlights:

  • LED lighting is expected to represent 36 percent of lumen-hour sales on the general illumination market by 2020, and 74 percent by 2030.
  • By 2030, the annual site energy savings from market penetration of LEDs will be approximately 300 terawatt-hours, or the equivalent annual electrical output of about 50 1000-megawatt power plants. At today’s energy prices, that equates to approximately $30 billion in savings in 2030 alone.
  • Assuming the same mix of power stations, these savings would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 210 million metric tons of carbon in 2030. The total energy consumption for lighting would decrease by roughly 46 percent relative to a scenario with no additional LEDs on the market – enough electricity to completely power nearly 24 million homes.

The econometric model underlying the report relies on assumptions of efficacy, retail price, and operating life that are based on work conducted collaboratively by DOE and industry experts, including members of the Next Generation Lighting Industry Alliance.

The model separately analyzes four sectors of the US lighting market: residential, commercial, industrial, and outdoor stationary. The residential market is today comprised of highly inefficient incandescent lamps, to which LEDs provide a cost-effective (on a life-cycle basis) alternative. The commercial sector, by virtue of its size – 60 percent of lighting service in the US in 2010, also presents an opportunity for significant energy savings.

To download a PDF of the report, go to